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I've migrated my website over to Wordpress so I can present more information front-and-center... including RSS feeds of some sites I read daily, links to my community partners and more features I'll be adding over the next week.

Wordpress is not as user-friendly as far as layout and design (anyone who's versant in it, give me a call regarding beer-for-services barter), but it should eventually make for a much-more interesting website that gives you a reason to come see me every day!

So please update your links... www.mattgrayrealestate.com/ always takes you to the latest version, or you can link http://mattgrayrealestate.wordpress.com/

So Nice, I'm Doin' It Twice

I'll be returning to host another open house this Sunday, 30 March, at a swell condo just a block off Eastlake Ave... this place is well above-average, with top of the line appliances, great travertine finishes in the kitchen and bath, and an overall kick-your-shoes-off-and-forget-the-day vibe, like a private spa...

Come see me from 1 -4pm this Sunday, 2019 Franklin Avenue East (a block uphill and block-and-a-half south of the stoplight at Eastlake Ave and Lynn St.)

There are a number of new and reduced-price listings in the neighborhood so if you're interested, come toward 4pm and I can show you around... I think this is one of Seattle's best (and most under-appreciated) neighborhoods... totally walkable, downtown-adjacent, and while new development is bringing more amenities, it still has some of that Seattle funkiness... not to mention public waterfront!

Inspiration

I've occasionally mentioned cool modern (or vintage modern) homes on here, but for a couple of days last week I got to see in person some of the most iconic 20th century architecture produced in the U.S...

The better-half and I, accompanied by our good friends, escaped to Palm Springs for a four-day respite from the cold, wet and gray. While it's a guilty pleasure for those of us who espouse density and environmentalism, I have to say that PS was full of low-effort fun (and what guilty pleasure isn't?), plenty of sun, and good food... and scores of architectural landmarks from the 1940s into the 1970s. As much as I had read about these buildings over the years, I wasn't prepared for how right they would feel to me, someone who grew up in cookie-cutter, ersatz colonial-themed subdivisions.


Make no mistake, many if not most of the houses I saw were intended for mass production even if, as in the case of the Wexler steel houses, only seven were built.





The Alexander Company had a huge impact on Palm Springs, and of course as someone who rails against sameness I have to admit my weakness for this particular brand of conformity flies in the face of my usual arguments (see above about guilty pleasures and PS.) On the other hand, most of these houses are modest in scale (for single-family residences), and exhibit an efficient use of space and light that lend the feeling of much bigger houses... lessons current developers would be wise to heed.

But hey, I don't need to justify my infatuation THAT much, do I? After all we're talking about the place where Elvis and Priscilla Presley spent their honeymoon... where Frank Sinatra's house is still front and center... and while the 70s and 80s celebs have yet to show up their ancestors in the style department, it's still fun to running across Suzanne Somers' house advertised for sale in a local real estate pulp mag ;)

All of this has inspired me to renew my search for the best examples of contemporary residential architecture for sale in Seattle... stay tuned... I think it's time for a fun group tour of some local mod(ern) homes for sale, don't you? Email me direct at mattgray@cbbain.com if you'd like to tag along... I'll have details in the next day or two.

Spring has Sprung!

Along with daffodils and the occasional sun breaks, increased real estate activity is a rite of spring. But with the national market turmoil, and no small amount of hesitancy and cooling off in the Seattle market, more than a few Realtors (and their clients) have been holding their breath since the holidays to see if things would start to pop...

Well they have.

Our office had its busiest seven-day period this past week since July 2007. I haven't seen the "big board" (the white board where we each log our sales) completely full since I arrived last fall... people were having to squeeeeeze those last few in just to fit.

Beyond my office's anecdotal evidence, one of the contributors over at the Seattle P-I's real estate professionals' blog did some analysis on last month's Northwest MLS numbers... things are heating up in the north end... and are STILL balanced overall. Can you stick a sign in the ground and ask 10% more than the house down the street sold for last month? No, but we're still in a solid market, and in dramatically better shape than the rest of the country.

"In February 2008, Seattle NWMLS AREA 710 (North Seattle) slipped in to a SELLER'S advantaged market (2.8 months inventory) [for single-family homes] becoming the first NWMLS area to become a SELLER'S advantaged market since September of 2007. Nie areas are now considered Balanced markets.

BALANCED markets for King and Snohomish Counties include:
Area 705, Greenlake/Ballard (4.1 months)
Area 700, Queen Ann/Magnolia (4.3 months)
Area 385, Central Seattle (4.5 months)
Area 140 West Seattle (4.6 months)
Area 715 Richmond Beach (5.1 months)
Area 390 Central Seattle (5.2 months)
Area 120 Des Moines (5.4 months)
Area 350 Renton (5.6 months)

All other NWMLS areas in the Region, including the Eastside continue to remain Buyer's advantaged markets.

Inventory is absorbing in the lower price ranges. In most areas, higher priced properties continue to build market time and build inventory.

January 2008 saw no Seller's advantaged markets with only 5 Balanced markets (NWMLS Areas 705, 710, 140, 700 and 715).

Sellers Market is defined as 0-3 months of inventory.
Balanced Market is defined as 3-6 months of inventory.
Buyers Market is defined as 6 months + of inventory."

SOURCE: SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER

A bit of luxe in Eastlake

I'll be hosting an open house this Sunday, 9 March, at a swell condo just a block off Eastlake Ave... this place is well above-average, with top of the line appliances, great travertine finishes in the kitchen and bath, and an overall kick-your-shoes-off-and-forget-the-day vibe, like a private spa... come see me from 1 -4pm this Sunday, 2019 Franklin Avenue East at Newton.

Nice Phinney bungalow close to it all

I'll be hosting an open house today at this bungalow on the west slope of Phinney Ridge, just around the corner from the Tin Hat et al... come by and say hi between 1 and 4pm.

6238 3rd Ave NW just south of th 4-way stop at NW 65th St.

My Thoughts Exactly

Elizabeth Rhodes at the The Seattle Times echoes my sentiments in her blog this week...

"Conventional wisdom says home prices continue to rise as long as the local economy is robust, as Puget Sound's is now. Moreover, recent history has shown that while the rate of appreciation may decline, actual across-the-board price drops aren't common...

... So perhaps the best way to approach this situation is to focus less on the market and more on your own needs.

If you view housing primarily as an investment, if you plan to own for just a couple of years, then your money may be better off invested elsewhere. Even in the best of times, sellers commonly don't break even if they own for less than two years because it costs money to sell a house.

However if having a home to call your own is your goal and you can see yourself living there long-term, then buying now makes sense. No one can tell if we've reached the bottom of the market, but some things can be said. With an abundance of homes for sale, buyers are in the driver's seat.

And if you own for at least five years, chances are good your home will appreciate enough that it won't matter whether you buy at "the bottom" or pay a few thousand more."

Open This Weekend

I'll be hosting an open house this Saturday and Sunday from 1 to 4pm at this very nice lower Queen Anne condo, just up the hill from Caffe Vita and Crow restaurant... it's a spacious (1,200 square feet!) two-bedroom, 1.75 bath unit that has a great framed view of the Space Needle, a large patio with a nice courtyard feel (and shielded on windy days), fireplace, and upgraded finishes, and of course garage parking... feels like a luxury suite at a posh resort. And it's priced under $500,000.

Come see me this Saturday and Sunday from 1-4pm, at 1011 5th Avenue North, four blocks north of Mercer.

Not your father's real estate agent's Oldsmobile

Please welcome the newest employee of mattgrayrealestate.com ... your suggestions for a name for our black Prius greatly appreciated (especially by her/him/it.)

The Better Half and I have been talking for some time about getting something more fuel-efficient and walking (er, I guess I should say driving/coasting/regenerating) some of our talk about gas-thirsty Americans. I have to admit that while I always knew the Prius was the way to go from the point of view of mileage and, frankly, promoting a progressive image in this overly car-centric profession, I didn't expect to like it as much as I do.

It's cute, but more than that it's got some great ergonomic details. It's bigger and more comfortable on the inside than you expect. And it's fun to drive... not in a sports car way, mind you, more in light, tight-turning, cutting-edge technology kinda way. (I'm sure every new SUV out there has a fancy touch screen too, just don't tell me about it.) I feel kinda like a kid at one of the futuristic rides at Disney World when I'm behind the wheel. Oh, and a wee bit superior to all the rest of you (just kidding.)

And even if I only get the consumer-reported average mileage, I will consume 400 fewer gallons of gas this year compared to what I would have been driving.

So email me with your ideas for a name for this little guy/gal, using the comment feature here, or directly at mattgray@CBBain.com

The Market As It Stands: Part 1

As I've told a number of friends and clients, I'm not ready to take off my cheerleader uniform just yet, but I've certainly had to put down my pom-poms... we are indeed seeing some prices drop, especially in new (and newer) condos and townhouses. But in many cases, these properties were overpriced, considering either the quality of design and construction or the fact that there were so many similar properties out there. Here's an example from my neighborhood, lower southeast Queen Anne:

This townhouse is new construction, just up the hill from the heart of Seattle Center. It has all the bells and whistles (granite counters, stainless appliances, a soaking tub) buyers seem to want these days, though I wonder if they just think that's what they're supposed to have... I love the way stainless appliances look but I gotta tell ya, they're difficult to keep clean, and most of what's sold with new construction is no different than the stock black or white appliances you found a few years back. I'm not saying you shouldn't like them--just look past them at the property itself and whether it's right for you.

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom townhouse came on the market over a year ago (January '07) for $659,000 with "view home" emblazoned on its yard sign. It sits with its three sibling townhomes just far enough up the south slope of Queen Anne that one expects great views of downtown Seattle and the Space Needle, and no doubt the developer expected to cash in on that aspect of the property when he/she tore down the bungalow that previously sat there. One would think that the design and layout would make the most of these views by placing the living/entertaining space on the top floor.

But guess what? The only views are from the master bedroom and its small deck which is on the top floor while the living space is on the second floor with the main windows facing west toward... a carport across the street. Even up in the master "suite" the window placement does not allow one to take in the view from the bed.

Hey everyone, it's a beautiful, clear evening... grab your cocktail and let's head up to the corner of our bedroom and enjoy the view.

Which means this "city view" townhouse is just like the scores of others not only on Queen Anne but in practically every other neighborhood in and around Seattle for literally hundreds of thousands of dollars less. Same finishes. Same exterior details and look. Same cramped driveways with nearly impossible entry angles that practically assure the small garages will serve as storage units while the owners' cars are parked on the street.

And so this townhouse sat unsold for five weeks at $659,000... for two months at $639,000... for five weeks at $599,000... then another two-and-a-half months at $579,000 (during which someone almost bought it, I should mention)... then dropped to $549,000, then $529,000 over the holidays...

And then dropped to $499,000 almost one year to the day from when it first listed... that $160k difference represents a 25% "drop", which of course factors into some of the "declining market" mentality. It is finally under contract to be sold... I won't know what the sale price is unless/until it closes but I'll keep you posted.

These scenarios are playing out all over town... spec houses built on property purchased at the height of the run-up in values, and at the height of the market for lumber, concrete and the like...
So when you read that condo and townhouse prices are falling, it's sometimes true... just as it's true that many of those prices were too high to begin with due to the fact that they are competing with many similar, nearly identical, properties. (Isn't it funny how, like many things in life and nature, a little diversity is healthy?)

But for all these townhouses sitting unsold, there are many, many properties that are pushing values up in their category or area, often in multiple-offer situations, just like the old days. Single-family home prices were up 6% last month... doesn't sound like a down market, now does it? More on that in my next post.

What should first time buyers expect?

Eeeks, there's a lot going on in the market... I'll post more here in a bit, but ran across this today in the Seattle P-I real estate blog and had to post these RIGHT-ON comments from some of Aubrey Cohen's readers...

"I guess I think that housing IS affordable. We've become rich, by our own parents' standards, and expect more than maybe we should from our first, even second homes. I know the houses my parents had as their first and second homes were a lot less than what my first-time buyers will accept today."

"I think of affordable as not brand new, an older home or condo that is in good shape, but doesn't have all the flashy bells and whistles."

"Should a first-time buyer really expect to find a home in perfect condition, 2 baths, less than 5 years old, etc etc? Or should they expect to buy something decent, but that needs cosmetics?"

"Every single condo buyer I work with, gotta have a second bath. Main reason for wanting a second bedroom? To play B&B for friends and family. A second bedroom will cost you at least $25K, probably more - cheaper to put them up in a hotel when they come by!"

"Do we really need home theater at all? Geez. A whole room for arts and crafts? I always use the dining room table for that."

"My kids are buyers in their late 20's and they think my house, the home they were raised in, is "below" what they want, yet out of those same mouths come the words 'poor us, the market is soooo unaffordable.'"

"Who says it is realistic for everyone to own? At some price point it is just not possible,except with family, or partners, and there is certainly nothing wrong with that."

Okay, enough cribbing his blog and time to get some more of mine on here... more in a bit... and we'll be hearing from C-Note again as well.

Semantics

Another sign that the sky is not falling, courtesy of P-I real estate reporter Aubrey Cohen's blog... note the term, "declining annual appreciation"... in other words, your home is still worth more. The map above shows how the RATE or speed of appreciation fell, not that prices are lower compared to a year ago. Also note that these stats are based on the sales of the same homes that sold in 2006... so one can imagine that some were distressed sales, whether relocations or for individual financial reasons, pulling the prices down a bit.

And of course these stats factor in the whole metro... Seattle's most popular neighborhoods have much stronger numbers.

"The typical Seattle-area house was worth 1.23 percent more in November and 0.85 percent more in the first half of December than in the same periods of 2006, according to a new report.

November was the 22nd straight month of declining annual appreciation in the Seattle area, according to First American CoreLogic. The area ranked 10th out of 34 metropolitan areas for November's appreciation and 11th for the first half of December."

At the Risk of Sounding Like My Father, Vol. 2

SHOCKER!

'07 home prices not so bad after all

I can only imagine how painful it must have been for the powers that be at the Seattle Times to run this headline. Yup, it's true.

Hmm... sky still above us. Seattle housing market still strong. Buying a house still a good investment, and waiting to buy one will result in paying a higher price.

Shocker.

Recruiting Coup

After some cajoling (mine) and wine (his), my beach buddy C-Note has agreed to occasionally share some wisdom from his many years as a financial consultant and brokerage manager. While he cautions that these are only his opinions, I'd take 'em over a grain of salt any day, unless of course he thought salt commodities were a good investment... Moreover he shares my belief in the long haul, whether it's real estate or the stock market, even as both worlds are suffering the effects of too much media hysteria. So whenever C-Note and I bump into each other on the virtual elevator, I'll be pushing him for the goods...






Yo yo yo, C-Note, whaddup?

What's up with the "whaddup"?! You're less street than me and I'm from Detroit. Promise me you're going to come up with a different name for me soon.

You're right, C, what flies at the beach after a bottle of wine doesn't quite wash here online...

Speaking of things coming out in the wash... Whether or not we've entered a recession, compared to a few months ago everything seems unsure, as opposed to particular sectors or indicators. It's hard to know what to worry about. What are you most concerned about in the U.S. economy?

The unwinding of the credit bubble and crunch (to mix descriptors) is of concern because we've never been through anything quite like it before. Delinquencies could spread to credit cards and auto loans at the consumer level. At the corporate level, the widespread use of financial "derivatives" as well as the broad dispersion of sub-prime loans, could spread the contagion into surprising sectors such as insurance companies.

Near term, I am concerned that the news media's hyper-focus on recession will prove to be a self-fulfilling prophesy. Consumers and businesses alike could slow spending in a wait and see approach, and there it is...recession. With that said though, a little more discipline on the part of consumer borrowing and spending is long overdue.

Long term my biggest concern is the quality of education and subsequently the quality of the labor pool. I fear the future working generations will be polarized....a fraction will be highly educated, creative and innovative, adept at technology, and astute and successful far beyond their parents greatest hopes. The larger fraction will have debased language skills, poor scientific literacy, and be unable to make change at the coffee shop without the help of the POS system.

Hey, we missed my floor... why are you holding down the "close door" button?!

Sorry about that, C-Note, but hey, gives me time to ask another question... Mortgage interest rates have been low for so long that the term "historic lows" is cliche. Where do you expect consumer mortgage rates to go in the next six, twelve and twenty-four months? What factors are you watching?

While a cliché, rates are low and still quite attractive. I expect a push toward higher rates as lending standards tighten and some inflation (energy, agricultural commodities, base metals, etc) works it's way into the system. I doubt we would reach double digit mortgage rates over the next year or two but I think the bias will be upward. The confusing factor will be the behavior of the lending institutions. Will Wamu, for instance, be willing and able to originate new loans in response to demand? Will they have the capital? Will they retrench into a survival mode? Again, many unknowns.

Here's my floor, gotta run.

Can't wait to run into you again there, buddy. I've got more questions, like--

Matt, have I mentioned my new year's resolution to take the stairs for exercise?

Signs of the Times

Not to be insensitive to those going through rough times... but here's another sign that much of the lending crisis, and ensuing housing downturn nationally, is actually a market in the process of correcting itself. The WA Department of Financial Institutions announced this week a big drop in the number of licensed mortgage originators (nearly a third from a year ago) and brokers (nearly a quarter) in our state following the 1 January deadline by which they had to fulfill more stringent testing, licensing and continuing education requirements. Prior to 2007 the mortgage industry was only marginally regulated here. In other words, at least some of the (predatory lending) rats seem to have left the ship.

We know now that across the country, and even here in Washington State, predatory lending practices started to become more common around 2005 as shady operators attempted to cash in on lower middle- and working-class families' fears that they were being left behind by the housing and real estate boom. It's those very loans which in part created the credit crunch this fall.